Horizon Scanning 2025

Thoughts around UK & Global societal issues in 2025

1. Introduction

This report provides a comprehensive overview of key global risks, economic factors, cybersecurity concerns, the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI), geopolitical issues, and resilience strategies. It is designed to inform policy makers, business leaders, and the public, aligning with the Phronaseum Think Tank’s mission to bridge the gap between research and policy. The report is built upon a thorough review of the provided sources, aiming to offer insights into current and emerging trends that affect society and statecraft. The think tank's statecraft approach is crucial for informing policy.

2. Global Risks

The global landscape is increasingly fractured, marked by geopolitical, environmental, societal, economic, and technological risks. The interconnectedness of these risks creates a complex web of challenges.

• Geopolitical Risks:

• • Escalating conflicts and the potential for miscalculation by political and military actors.

  • Geoeconomic confrontation, trade wars, and the erosion of trust in international systems.

  • The increasing severity of state-led threats.

• Environmental Risks:

• • Extreme weather events amplified by climate change.

  • Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse.

  • Pollution at a crossroads, requiring urgent action.

  • Natural resource shortages.

• Societal Risks:

• • Widespread societal and political polarization, eroding trust in institutions.

  • The spread of misinformation and disinformation.

  • Inequality and the potential for civil unrest.

• Technological Risks:

• • Adverse outcomes of AI technologies, such as bias, privacy problems, and security vulnerabilities.

  • Cyber espionage and warfare.

These risks are not isolated; they interact, often exacerbating each other. The need for collaborative, multilateral solutions is paramount.

3. Economic Factors

Economic risks have shifted in focus from inflation and economic downturns to other areas. However, significant concerns remain:

• Trade Wars: The potential for a spiral of tariffs and other trade-restricting measures could have significant global consequences.

• Asset Vulnerability: Elevated valuations in several asset classes make them vulnerable to economic shocks.

• Supply Chain Issues: The increasing complexity and global interconnectedness of supply chains create vulnerabilities that malicious actors can exploit.

• Impact of Global Events: The war in Ukraine, the energy crisis, and the cost of living are major issues that influence criminal activity.

4. Cybersecurity

Cybersecurity threats are a significant and growing concern, with a need for a proactive and adaptive security posture.

• Evolving Threats:

• • The increasing sophistication and frequency of cyberattacks, including ransomware.

  • The use of AI by malicious actors to enhance attacks.

  • AI-enabled attacks such as advanced phishing, automated and targeted attacks, and the weaponization of AI for disinformation are emerging threats.

  • State-aligned actors are increasingly targeting critical infrastructure.

  • Mobile device vulnerabilities and the expanding attack surface of the Internet of Things (IoT)demand increased attention.

• Proactive Strategies:

• • Horizon scanning to identify emerging threats and opportunities.

  • Risk assessment and management to reduce the attack surface.

  • Zero trust architecture to limit lateral movement and minimize attack surfaces.

  • Network segmentation to isolate breaches.

  • Multi-factor authentication (MFA) to enhance access security.

  • User awareness and training to mitigate social engineering and phishing.

  • Incident response plans and red teaming exercises are critical to test and improve resilience.

• Reporting:

• • Comprehensive reporting is essential for patching vulnerabilities, and should include criticality, reproduction steps, and patch suggestions.

  • Reporting needs to be tailored to various stakeholders including executive level summaries.

  • Cyber threat intelligence (CTI) reports should include executive summaries, potential impacts, and APT activity highlights.

  • Reports need to use the Traffic Light Protocol (TLP) to classify information and communicate boundaries.

5. Artificial Intelligence (AI)

AI is a powerful technology with dual-use capabilities, presenting both opportunities and risks:

• AI for Good:

• • AI can enhance cybersecurity by detecting and responding to threats.

  • AI can be used to solve global problems such as disease and climate change.

• AI for Ill:

• • AI can be weaponised for disinformation, phishing and social engineering attacks.

  • AI introduces ethical considerations regarding bias, transparency, and potential misuse.

  • AI can be used for cyber espionage and warfare.

• AI Governance:

• • There is a need for frameworks to ensure the responsible and ethical deployment of AI.

  • Model cards and risk cards are foundational for increasing transparency and accountability.

  • Supervisory boards and AI councils are needed for human oversight and to address ethical issues.

6. Geopolitical Issues

Geopolitical tensions are intensifying, influencing global risks and the distribution of power:

• Global Tech Rivalry: The race for AI supremacy is creating geopolitical tension, particularly between the US and China.

• State-Sponsored Attacks: State-aligned actors pose a significant threat, particularly to critical infrastructure.

• Erosion of Trust: Declining trust in governments and international institutions is a growing concern.

• Regional Conflicts: Ongoing conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, have global ramifications and disrupt economies.

7. Resilience

Resilience, the ability to prepare for, absorb, respond to, and recover from shocks, is crucial in this environment:

• Cyber Resilience:

• • Cyber-resilience is an umbrella term that encompasses research areas that contribute to understanding how organisations prepare for, absorb, respond to, and recover from cyber-shocks.

  • Cyber-resilience is highly contextual and depends on an organisation's history, size, business culture, and other factors.

  • Resilience includes technical tools and also human factors, such as fostering internal understanding of cyber resilience and providing risk forecasting tools.

• Organisational Resilience:

• • Organisations need to cultivate a culture of cybersecurity awareness and responsibility.

  • Regular security awareness training, phishing simulations, and a clear incident response plan are essential.

  • Red teaming methodologies are essential to test existing security controls and decision-making processes.

• Societal Resilience:

• • A focus on civic and societal resilience should inform the approach to statecraft.

  • It’s important to note that issues outside of cybersecurity impact societal resilience, including the green economy, and "doughnut economics".

8. Statecraft

• Strategic Foresight: The use of horizon scanning to anticipate emerging threats and opportunities is key for effective statecraft and policymaking.

• Policy Influence: The think tank's role is to generate knowledge, propose initiatives, and support processes that contribute to a better society through a statecraft approach.

• Collaborative Approach: Statecraft requires collaboration between public and private sectors, civil society, and international organizations to mitigate complex global risks.

9. Conclusion

The world faces a multitude of interconnected challenges spanning global risks, economics, cybersecurity, AI, geopolitics, and resilience. Addressing these challenges requires a proactive, collaborative, and adaptive approach. The Phronaseum Think Tank aims to contribute to these efforts by providing research-based insights and policy recommendations that promote a more secure, resilient, and equitable society. The key actions can be summarized as follows:

• Embrace Red Teaming to identify weaknesses in existing strategies and improve defences.

• Invest in AI-Powered Security Solutions to enhance threat detection and response.

• Develop a Cyber-Resilient Culture through awareness training and incident response planning.

• Focus on Strategic Foresight by constant monitoring of news, technological advancements, and criminal tactics.

• Prioritise Ethical AI Development and implement strong governance frameworks.

• Foster Global Collaboration to address shared risks.

10. Dissemination

This report is disseminated through the Phronaseum Think Tank's channels, partner organisations, and open access platforms. The findings will be used to inform policy debates, stimulate reforms, and promote public engagement, as the think tank’s mission intends. Whilst this product is copyright, it may be freely used so long as it is attributed.